Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 0.157996 0.187310 0.221782 0.265642 0.320431 0.387235 4.758037e-01
2025-08-17 0.115472 0.148624 0.191785 0.253148 0.339901 0.460914 6.475561e-01
2025-08-24 0.092734 0.128169 0.178636 0.258061 0.384387 0.585838 9.499267e-01
2025-08-31 0.075796 0.111539 0.166706 0.262093 0.431986 0.741844 1.404329e+00
2025-09-07 0.063440 0.098822 0.157629 0.268820 0.490223 0.953850 2.144500e+00
2025-09-14 0.053751 0.088137 0.149301 0.275119 0.554455 1.227964 3.338906e+00
2025-09-21 0.044813 0.076733 0.136899 0.270170 0.596765 1.496770 4.947536e+00
2025-09-28 0.034975 0.061646 0.113926 0.235797 0.556096 1.529803 5.897985e+00
2025-10-05 0.030756 0.056331 0.109168 0.241240 0.624186 1.967586 9.662733e+00
2025-10-12 0.027808 0.052911 0.107583 0.254419 0.727013 2.671655 1.766191e+01
2025-10-19 0.024992 0.049183 0.104415 0.262825 0.825462 3.537770 3.248245e+01
2025-10-26 0.022622 0.045940 0.101600 0.271656 0.937745 4.726277 6.380493e+01
2025-11-02 0.019857 0.041413 0.094861 0.267410 1.005270 5.910740 1.204271e+02
2025-11-09 0.017210 0.036668 0.086426 0.254528 1.028780 6.938896 2.134116e+02
2025-11-16 0.015596 0.034112 0.083299 0.259233 1.151030 9.362459 5.510452e+02
2025-11-23 0.014175 0.031767 0.080194 0.263086 1.281516 12.679983 1.700815e+03
2025-11-30 0.013013 0.029867 0.077930 0.269674 1.446919 17.798812 7.738364e+03
2025-12-07 0.011984 0.028128 0.075722 0.275855 1.629300 25.259171 6.488516e+04
2025-12-14 0.010850 0.025900 0.071414 0.270775 1.726979 32.602169 9.648694e+05
2025-12-21 0.009294 0.022271 0.061741 0.236230 1.533515 30.341483 2.102688e+06
2025-12-28 0.008670 0.021173 0.060308 0.241618 1.718427 43.792495 NaN
2026-01-04 0.008234 0.020539 0.060318 0.254764 2.018707 71.193332 NaN
2026-01-11 0.007760 0.019713 0.059456 0.263134 2.301301 112.263784 NaN